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You can't give out awards retroactively. It's funny to lead off this monster post that way since, over the next few thousand words, it will absolutely look like I'm giving out Cy Young awards retroactively. But I want to explain what I think is a subtle difference. Awards --...
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I think Dickey deserves more credit for being a knuckleballer and for narative. He was a much better story than Kershaw.
Very nice work. My only quibble is still the 1979 AL award. I just don’t see a guy winning a Cy anymore when he’s 18th in bWAR, 19th in WAA, 26th in BABIP, 30th in HR allowed, and so on. He led the league in nothing that’s currently valued for a pitcher. I think it was have gone to Guidry.
I don’t see that the 2011 NL CYA voting would have been so different if taken today, lo these eight years later. 😉
Halladay went 19-6 with a 2.35 ERA in 233.2 IP. He led the league in ERA+ (163), FIP (2.20), BB/9 (1.3) and K/W (6.29), and finished 2nd in the vote.
Kershaw went 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA in 233.1 IP. He led the NL in Wins, ERA, and K’s (248), winning the Pitcher’s Triple Crown, as well as WHIP (0.977) and H/9 (6.7). His FIP (2.47) and especially ERA+ (161) were within striking distance of Halladay’s in the same number of innings.
Halladay’s bWAR (+2.1) and fWAR (+1.3) leads are based mostly on the defense (which credits Roy with saving about 6 runs more than Clayton, even though Kershaw actually allowed more unearned runs (7 vs. 4)) and their respective ballparks. Those factors seem to discount Kershaw’s accomplishments I think more than they should.
Halladay walked a few less (19), but also struck out considerably fewer (28), and Dodger Stadium surely didn’t help him do that. . It’s arguably the case that Halladay was slightly better than Kershaw that year, but hardly the slam-dunk you said we needed to overturn an existing decision. Especially one so recent.
Thank you for the Appier 1993 vote. He was easily the best pitcher in baseball that year. I didn’t have WAR then (he beat the winner Mcdowell 9.3 to 4.4) but I did know Mcdowell couldn’t lick Appiers shoe that year.
Actually I would argue that in the 8 years before he broke down (he was basically done by 30 though he pitched some more after that) Appier was the third best pitcher in baseball. (Behind Maddux and Clemens)
Sam McDowell is a guy who was headed to the HOF, but it all ended too soon. He had a couple of 300 strikeout seasons, and averaged over 10 Ks/9 a couple of those years, when that wasn’t really happening like it is now. Sadly he was pretty much done by age 30/31. That was right around your cutoff. If he had just 3 more good seasons and maybe a couple of mediocre ones, I believe he’d be there. I do seem to recall that arm troubles derailed him. I even recall him discussing have arm troubles, but suddenly feeling OK after “adhesions” popped free after throwing. He described the “pop” and then all the pain being gone. It was a pretty graphic discussion, so I never forgot it.
Do MVPs next!!! Maybe call them the Anti-Dawsons or Anti-Garveys?